Wind Nerd | East End Wind, Waves & Tides

Updated 8:05 AM EDT

Today's Conditions

Wind Regime

SYNOPTICSynoptic GradientHIGH

A large-scale pressure system is driving the wind today, not local heating. Conditions will be more persistent and less tied to the time of day — the wind can be strong in the morning and hold through the evening. Direction follows the pressure gradient, not the coastline. The forecast leans on ECMWF, GFS, and WeatherNext 2, which handle large-scale patterns well. Synoptic days often show tighter model agreement, though the actual spread below tells you whether that holds today.

Session-window models agree well (±1kt avg, 7am–7pm). Peak range 4kt at 9am. High confidence.

Sea Temperature

Inshore (MUR satellite)

72.3 °F

+2.2°F vs avg

Offshore (NDBC 44017)

68.0 °F

Inshore water is 72.3°F (offshore buoy 44017: 68.0°F), running 2.2°F warmer than the seasonal average. Warmer-than-normal water slightly reduces the land-sea temperature contrast that drives the sea breeze.

Inshore: MUR satellite SST · 40.82°N 72.48°W · ~2 day lag

Wind Forecast

Road G · Multiple models · knots

	11 FridayS																12 SaturdayM																								13 SundayS																								14 MondayM																								15 TuesdayM																								16 WednesdayM
Model	8a	9a	10a	11a	12p	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p	11p	12a	1a	2a	3a	4a	5a	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12p	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p	11p	12a	1a	2a	3a	4a	5a	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12p	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p	11p	12a	1a	2a	3a	4a	5a	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12p	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p	11p	12a	1a	2a	3a	4a	5a	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12p	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p	11p	12a	1a	2a	3a	4a	5a	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12p	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p
ENSEMBLE WindNerd blended	712	611	69	610	711	712	712	510	47	47	46	56	47	47	47	46	47	46	46	57	48	59	59	610	710	711	711	711	812	711	712	612	611	812	812	813	813	814	915	916	1017	1118	1118	1119	1220	1119	1318	1017	916	914	815	814	813	711	710	57	67	68	77	57	46	68	813	914	1015	915	1014	1019	1117	1118	1117	1117	1217	1218	1218	1217	1216	1215	1217	1017	1018	1118	1216	1216	1316	1316	1316	1215	1115	1114	1114	1014	1013	1012	1012	912	911	912	912	812	710	710	610	610	610	610	610	69	69	59	58	49	38	38	38	37	37	38	48	59	610	711	812	813	813	814	814	714	714	714	813	813
ECMWF 9km	610	47	46	66	68	69	69	68	58	47	57	67	67	57	58	58	47	57	68	79	810	811	811	812	812	912	912	912	911	811	811	811	912	912	1013	1113	1114	1215	1216	1216	1116	1216	1318	1519	1620	1519	1316	1214	1114	1014	913	913	1013	1012	1012	1012	912	911	89	79	79	710	710	710	79	79	911	1013	1215	1115	1115	1016	1217	1419	1620	1617	1612	158	139	1111	1013	1112	1411	1610	1710	1710	169	169	1510	1410	1410	1410	1411	1311	1212	1212	1114	1115	1116	1116	1116	1015	1014	914	913	813	914	814	814	713	613	414	215	216	215	314	313	213	314	514	615	616	717	817	817	817	917	917	917	916	915	1014
GFS 22km	812	711	68	79	811	812	813	510	57	57	66	56	47	48	47	47	58	47	36	57	37	35	45	55	66	66	77	78	810	79	711	712	712	915	915	816	814	917	1019	1020	1222	1323	1223	1123	1225	1224	1725	1122	1020	1016	918	815	713	610	56	32	52	54	75	56	23	67	1117	1320	1422	1220	1317	1020	1216	1318	1417	1416	1315	1113	1013	912	912	1113	1217	1117	1218	1219	1316	1118	1318	1317	1317	1217	1216	1215	1115	1015	812	1110	109	109	96	97	98	87	75	76	56	68	79	79	69	68	68	68	68	57	45	34	34	34	35	34	44	54	65	76	87	97	98	89	810	811	811	812	812	812
ICON 13km	715	614	614	715	715	714	513	39	36	25	24	24	35	35	34	24	24	23	34	35	48	612	612	613	713	714	614	613	613	613	512	410	36	47	47	36	36	36	36	47	47	48	59	59	49	47	59	59	49	48	612	512	511	411	38	36	47	38	47	37	47	59	611	612	611	612	612	1326	925	925	922	920	1020	1021	1121	1122	1223	1123	1121	919	917	917	918	1019	919	919	818	817	715	714	714	714	815	816	816	816	715	614	612	511	410	410	49	47	47	36	36	25	25	25	24	48	48	58	48	48	58	510	713	715	816	917	918	918	919	918	817	715	613	613	612	612
METEOBLUE kt	718	718	717	718	718	818	718	416	37	35	34	59	49	36	24	34	24	24	24	24	49	411	513	616	717	719	719	719	718	617	615	614	412	59	510	612	713	713	714	714	714	815	815	917	918	718	715	816	717	614	514	614	715	715	716	614	511	510	59	49	58	49	48	36	35	712	612	816	917	818	617	919	1023	1126	1228	1329	1329	1228	1128	928	827	825	1023	1121	1121	1022	1023	922	821	820	819	817	817	817	818	719	719	619	519	517	516	514	413	413	412	411	39	38	37	36	36	25	25	15	14	14	24	15	26	28	310	413	615	617	718	718	517	517	517	516	515	513
HRRR 3km	812	711	68	79	811	812	813	510	57	57	66	56	47	48	47	47	58	47	36	57	37	35	45	55	66	66	77	78	810	79	711	712	712	915	915	816	814	917	1019	1020	1222	1323	1223	1123	1225	1224	1725	1122	1020	1016	918	815	713	610	56	32	52	54	75	56	23	67	1117	1320	1422	1220	1317	1020	1216	1318	1417	1416	1315	1113	1013	912	912	1113	1217	1117	1218	1219	1316	1118	1318	1317	1317	1217	1216	1215	1115	1015	812	1110	109	109	96	97	98	87	75	76	56	68	79	79	69	68	68	68	68	57	45	34	34	34	35	34	44	54	65	76	87	97	98	89	810	811	811	812	812	812